「長期から即時までの時空間地震予測とモニタリングの新展開」統計数理研究所/京都大学防災研究所/県立広島大学/静岡県立大学

Ogata, Y. (2024) How the ETAS models were created, used, and evolved -- Personal views and perspectives, Annals of Geophysics, 67(4), p. S428. https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-9153. (Published: 31 October 2024)

Zhuang, J. (2024). Earthquake Predictability and Forecast Evaluation Using Likelihood‐Based Marginal and Conditional Scores. Seismological Research Letters 2024; https://doi.org/10.1785/0220240256. (Published: 08 October 2024)

Ogata, Y. (2024). Estimating Real Seismicity Rates from Nonhomogeneously Recorded Earthquake Catalogs. Seismological Research Letters 2024; https://doi.org/10.1785/0220240153. (Published: 08 October 2024)

Bernabeu, A., Zhuang, J. and Mateu, J. (2024). Spatio-Temporal Hawkes Point Processes: A Review. Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics (JABES), https://doi.org/10.1007/s13253-024-00653-7. (Published: 19 September 2024)

Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2024). Non‐Stationary ETAS Model: How It Works for External Forcing. Seismological Research Letters 2024; doi.org/10.1785/0220240166.(Published: 29 August 2024)

Ogata, Y. and Kumazawa, T. (2024). Inverse analysis of seismic activity rate changes for severely incomplete sequences: comparison of aftershock activity patterns immediately following the 2023 M6.5 and 2024 M7.6 Noto Peninsula earthquakes. Earth Planets Space 76, 112. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-024-02057-w. (Published: 23 August 2024)

Mizrahi L., Dallo I., van der Elst N. J., Christophersen A., Spassiani I., Werner M. J., Iturrieta P., Bayona J. A., Iervolino I., Schneider M., Page M. T., Zhuang J., Herrmann M., Michael A. J., Falcone G., Marzocchi W., Rhoades D., Gerstenberger M., Gulia1 L., Schorlemmer D., Becker J., Han M., Kuratle L., Marti M. and Wiemer S. (2024). Developing, Testing, and Communicating Earthquake Forecasts: Current Practices and Future Directions. Reviews of Geophysics, 62, e2023RG000823. doi:10.1029/2023RG000823. (First published: 13 August 2024)

Hammond C. R., Zhuang J., LeBlanc C., Rahimi-Ardabily S., Zhang T., Good R. and Loge F. J. (2024). Conceptual Water Main Failure Risk: Self-Excitation, Pipe Age, and Statistical Modeling Performance. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Vol. 150, No. 10, doi: 10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-6432. (Published: 6 Aug 2024)

Mitsui, Y. (2024). Stable estimation of the Gutenberg–Richter b-values by the b-positive method: a case study of aftershock zones for magnitude-7 class earthquakes, Earth, Planets and Space 2024 76:92, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-024-02035-2. (Published: 4 July 2024)

Si, Z., Zhuang, J., Gentili, S., Jiang, C. and Wang, W. (2024). Bayesian Merging of Earthquake Magnitudes Determined by Multiple Seismic Networks. Seismological Research Letters 2024, doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220230404. (Published: 2 July 2024)

Spassiani, I., Petrillo, G. and Zhuang, J. (2024). Distribution related to all samples and extreme events in the ETAS cluster. Seismological Research Letters 2024, doi:10.1785/0220230324. (First Online: 27 Jun 2024)

Petrillo, G., Kumazawa, T., Napolitano, F., Capuano, P. and Zhuang, J. (2024). Fluids‐Triggered Swarm Sequence Supported by a Nonstationary Epidemic‐Like Description of Seismicity. Seismological Research Letters 2024, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220240056. (Published: 27 June 2024)

Liu, Y., Zhuang, J., Guo, Y., Jiang, C., Tain, Q., Zhang, Y. and Long F. (2024) Background and clustering characteristics of recent seismicity in Southwestern China. Geophysical Journal International, 2024;, ggae211, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggae211. (Published: 13 June 2024)

Petrillo, G. and Zhuang, J. (2024). Bayesian earthquake forecasting approach based on the epidemic type aftershock sequence model. Earth Planets Space 76, 78 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-024-02021-8. (Published: 24 May 2024)

Guo, Y., Zhuang, J. and Zhang, H. (2024). Statistical modeling of 3D seismicity and its correlation with fault slips along major faults in California, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Volume 638, 2024, 118747, ISSN 0012-821X, doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2024.118747. (Available online: 7 May 2024)

Nishikawa, T. (2024). Comparison of statistical low-frequency earthquake activity models, Earth Planets Space 76, 59. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-024-02007-6. (Published: 17 April 2024)

尾形良彦 (2024). 大きな地震連鎖の確率予測をどう求めるか, 日本地震学会モノグラフ 第7号「等身大の地震学をどう社会に役立てるか」, pp. 20-23.

Iwata, D.and Nanjo, K.Z. (2024). Adaptive estimation of the Gutenberg–Richter b value using a state space model and particle filtering, Sci Rep 14, 4630 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-54576-x. (Published: 05 March 2024)

Li, Y., Zhuang, J., Shi C., Guo, Y. and Xiong, Z. (2024). A 3D Spherical ETAS Model: A Case Study in the Alaska‐Aleutian Region, Seismological Research Letters 2024. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220230440. (Published: 28 February 2024)

Shen, X. and Zhuang, J. (2024). Residual Analysis-Based Model Improvement for State Space Models With Nonlinear Responses, IEEE Transactions on Emerging Topics in Computational Intelligence, doi: 10.1109/TETCI.2024.3355813. (Published: 29 January 2024)

Hainzl, S., Kumazawa, T. and Ogata, Y. (2024). Aftershock forecasts based on incomplete earthquake catalogs: ETASI model application to the 2023 SE Türkiye earthquake sequence, Geophysical Journal International, 2024;, ggae006, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggae006. (Published: 05 January 2024)

Petrillo, G., Lippiello, E. and Zhuang, J. (2023). Including stress relaxation in point-process model for seismic occurrence, Geophysical Journal International, 2023;, ggad482, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggad482. (Published: 20 December 2023)

Godano, C., Petrillo, G. and Lippiello, E. (2023). Evaluating the incompleteness magnitude using an unbiased estimate of the b value, Geophysical Journal International, Volume 236, Issue 2, February 2024, Pages 994–1001, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggad466. (Published: 08 December 2023)

Buckby, J., Wang, T., Fletcher, D., Zhuang, J., Takeo, A. and Obara, K. (2023). Finding the number of latent states in hidden Markov models using information criteria. Environ Ecol Stat 30, 797–825 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-023-00584-5. (Published: 22 November 2023)

Li, H., Chen, S., Zhang, B., Li, Y. and Zhuang, J. (2023). Bayesian inversion for modeling 3D density structures in the eastern margin of Bayan Har block and its tectonic implications, Geophysical Journal International, Volume 236, Issue 2, February 2024, Pages 872–887, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggad453. (Published: 20 November 2023)

Petrillo, G. and Zhuang, J. (2023). Verifying the Magnitude Dependence in Earthquake Occurrence. Physical Review Letters 131, 154101. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.131.154101. (Published: 12 October 2023)

Tamaribuchi, K., Kudo, S., Shimojo, K. et al. (2023). Detection of hidden earthquakes after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake by automatic hypocenter determination combined with machine learning. Earth Planets Space 75, 155. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-023-01915-3. (Published: 10 October 2023)

Lippiello, E., Petrillo, G., Baccari, S. and de Arcangelis, L. (2023). Estimating generation time of SARS-CoV-2 variants in Italy from the daily incidence rate, Scientific Reports, 13, 11543 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-38327-y. (Published: 17 July 2023)

Nanjo, K.Z., Yukutake, Y. and Kumazawa, T. (2023). Activated volcanism of Mount Fuji by the 2011 Japanese large earthquakes. Scientific Reports 13, 10562 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-37735-4. (Published: 29 June 2023)

Wang, L., Chen, S., Zhuang, J. et al. (2023). Gravity field changes reveal deep mass transfer before and after the 2013 Lushan earthquake. Communications Earth & Environment 4, 194. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00860-z. (Published: 31 May 2023)

Nishikawa, T. and Nishimura T. (2023). Development of an Epidemic-Type Aftershock-Sequence Model Explicitly Incorporating the Seismicity-Triggering Effects of Slow Slip Events, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 128, e2023JB026457. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JB026457. (First published: 15 May 2023)

Petrillo, G. and Lippiello, E. (2023). Incorporating Foreshocks in an Epidemic-like Description of Seismic Occurrence in Italy. Applied Sciences 2023, 13(8):4891. https://doi.org/10.3390/app13084891. (Published: April 13, 2023)

Nomura, S. and Ogata, Y. (2023). Cluster-based foreshock discrimination model with flexible time horizon and mainshock magnitudes. Progress in Earth and Planetary Science 10, 20, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-023-00548-0. (Published: 12 April 2023)

Niu, Y., Zhuang, J. and Xiong, Z. (2023). Second-order smoothness prior over the Delaunay Tessellation in Bayesian geophysical inversion, Spatial Statistics, 54, 2023, 100735. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spasta.2023.100735, April, 2023 (Available Online: 1 March 2023).

熊澤貴雄, 尾形良彦 (2023). 非定常ETASモデルから見える能登半島群発地震活動の地域的変化(続報2). 地震予知連絡会会報 109 (7-2), pp.321-325, 2023年3月.

尾形良彦 (2023). 背景地震活動度を用いた内陸地震の長期予測と検証評価. 地震予知連絡会会報 109 (12-9), pp.591-598, 2023年3月.

Guo, Y., Zhuang, J. and Zhang, H. (2023). Detection and characterization of earthquake swarms in Nankai and its association with slow slip events. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 128(3), e2022JB025984. doi:10.1029/2022JB025984. (Published: March 10, 2023)

Xiong, Z. and Zhuang, J. (2023). SETAS: A spherical version of the space-time ETAS model. Seismological Research Letters 2023. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220220198. (Published: February 27, 2023)

Zhang, B., Chen, S., Zhuang, J., Zhang, B., Wu, X. and Liang, B. (2023). Statistical evaluation of earthquake forecast efficiency using earthquake-catalog and fault slip rate in the Sichuan-Yunnan region, China. Frontiers in Earth Science, 11. https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1091408, (Published: February 15, 2023).

楠城一嘉 (2022). 地震学習会「ジオパーク活動で使える地震学6: 決定論的地震予知から確率論的地震予測への道のり」参加報告, 地震学会ニュースレター, 第75巻, NL5号, NL-5-21, https://www.zisin.jp/publications/news75.html, 2023年1月10日.

Fukushima, Y., Nishikawa, T. and Kano, Y. (2023). High probability of successive occurrence of Nankai megathrust earthquakes. Scientific Reports, 13, 63. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-26455-w, (Published: 10 January 2023).

Nishikawa, T., Ide, S. and Nishimura, T. (2023). A review on slow earthquakes in the Japan Trench. Progress in Earth and Planetary Science 10, 1. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-022-00528-w, (Published: 03 January 2023).

岩田貴樹 (2022). ETASモデル：クラスター性を表すための点過程モデル, 第13回横幹連合コンファレンス予稿集, https://doi.org/10.11487/oukan.2022.0_C-4-4, 2022年12月.

Ide, S. and Nomura, S. (2022). Forecasting tectonic tremor activity using a renewal process model. Progress in Earth and Planetary Science 9, 67. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-022-00523-1, (Published: 08 December 2022)

Petrillo, G. and Zhuang, J. (2022). The debate on the earthquake magnitude correlations: a meta-analysis. Scientific Reports 12, 20683. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-25276-1, (Published: 30 November 2022).

Godano, C. and Petrillo, G. (2022). Estimating the completeness magnitude m_c and the b-values in a snap. Earth and Space Science, 10(2), e2022EA002540. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EA002540, (First published: 25 October 2022).

Godano, C., Tramelli, A., Mora, M., Taylor, W. and Petrillo, G. (2022). An analytic expression for the volcanic seismic swarms occurrence rate. A case study of some volcanoes in the world. Earth and Space Science, 10(2), e2022EA002534. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EA002534. (First published: 18 October 2022).

熊澤貴雄, 尾形良彦 (2022). 非定常ETASモデルから見える能登半島群発地震活動の地域的変化(続報). 地震予知連絡会会報 108 (7-3), pp.310-313, 2022年9月.

Benali, A., Zhuang, J. and Talbi, A. (2022). An updated version of the ETAS model based on multiple change points detection. Acta Geophysica, 70, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-022-00863-y. (Published: 18 August 2022).

Zhuang, J. (2022). Statistical Seismology, in: Daya Sagar, B.S., Cheng, Q., McKinley, J. and Agterberg, F. (eds) Encyclopedia of Mathematical Geosciences. Encyclopedia of Earth Sciences Series. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-26050-7_34-1. (Published: 04 August 2022).

Ogata, Y. (2022). Prediction and validation of short-to-long-term earthquake probabilities in inland Japan using the hierarchical space–time ETAS and space–time Poisson process models, Earth Planets and Space, 74, 110, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-022-01669-4, (Published: 18 July 2022).

Zhuang, J. and Siew, H-Y. (2022). A Simultaneous Estimation of the Baseline Intensity and Parameters for Modulated Renewal Processes, Axioms, 11(7), 303, https://doi.org/10.3390/axioms11070303. July 2022 (Published: 23 June 2022).

Yamada, M. and Chen, D.-Y. (2022). Automatic Hypocenter Determination with the IPFx method for the 2018 Hualien earthquake sequence, Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 33 (18). https://doi.org/10.1007/s44195-022-00018-y. (Published: 16 June 2022)

Si, Z., Zhuang, J. and Jiang, C. (2022). A Bayesian algorithm for magnitude determination by merging multiple seismic networks, Chinese Journal of Geophysics (in Chinese), 65 (6): 2167-2178, doi:10.6038/cjg2022P0138, (Available Online: 10 June 2022).

Xiao, Y. and Yamada, M. (2022). XYtracker: a new approach to estimate fault rupture extent in real-time for large earthquakes. Earth Planets Space, 74 (77), https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-022-01650-1, (Published: 26 May 2022)

Petrillo, G., Rosso, A. and Lippiello, E. (2022). Testing of the Seismic Gap Hypothesis in a Model With Realistic Earthquake Statistics, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 127(6), June 2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JB023542, (First Published: 19 May 2022).

Yano, K. and Kano, M. (2022). l1 trend filtering-based detection of short-term slow slip events: Application to a GNSS array in Southwest Japan. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 127, e2021JB023258. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JB023258, (First published: 18 April 2022).

Godano, C., Tramelli, A., Petrillo, G., Sessa, E.B. and Lippiello, E. (2022). The Dependence on the Moho Depth of the b-Value of the Gutenberg–Richter Law, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2022; 112 (4): 1921–1934. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120210144, (First Online: 14 April 2022).

楠城一嘉 (2022).【著書】 地震と火山と防災のはなし, ‎ 成山堂書店, 120ページ, 2022年3月, ISBN:978-4-425-51491-5. （静岡県立大学ニュース・静岡新聞）

Yamanaka, Y., Kurata, S., Yano, K., Komaki, F., Shiina, T. and Kato, A. (2022). Structured regularization based velocity structure estimation in local earthquake tomography for the adaptation to velocity discontinuities, Earth Planets Space, 74, 43, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-022-01600-x, (Published: 18 March 2022).

Lee, Y., Laub, P., Taimre, T., Zhao, H. and Zhuang, J. (2022). Exact simulation of extrinsic stress-release processes, Journal of Applied Probability, 59(1), pp.105-117, https://doi.org/10.1017/jpr.2021.35, March 2022 (Published online by Cambridge University Press: 14 February 2022).

Taroni, M., Zhuang, J. and Marzocchi, W. (2022). Reply to “Comment on ‘High‐Definition Mapping of the Gutenberg–Richter b‐Value and Its Relevance: A Case Study in Italy’ by M. Taroni, J. Zhuang, and W. Marzocchi” by Laura Gulia, Paolo Gasperini, and Stefan Wiemer, Seismological Research Letters, Vol.93 (2A), pp.1095-1097, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220210244, January 2022.

Nanjo, K.Z., Izutsu, J., Orihara, Y. and Kamogawa, M. (2021). Changes in seismicity pattern due to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence and implications for improving the foreshock traffic-light system, Tectonophysics, 822, 5, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2021.229175, March 2022 (First Online: 5 January 2022).

庄 建倉, 小山慎介, 野村俊一 (2021). 「特集 Hawkes過程の新展開と応用」について, 統計数理, 第69巻, 第2号, pp.121-122, 2021年12月.

庄 建倉, 尾形良彦 (2021). 統計地震学におけるETASモデル―その進展とホークス型モデル, 統計数理, 第69巻, 第2号, pp.145-163, 2021年12月.

岩田貴樹 (2021). 地震学における非線形Hawkes過程: 摩擦構成則に基づく地震活動モデル, 統計数理, 第69巻, 第2号, pp.209-222, 2021年12月.

郭 一村, 庄 建倉 (2021). 時空間ETASモデルの拡張バージョンとその応用, 統計数理, 第69巻, 第2号, pp.223-237, 2021年12月.

野村俊一, 田中昌之 (2021). 余震誘発効果を考慮した繰り返し地震の予測, 統計数理, 第69巻, 第2号, pp.239-254, 2021年12月.

Taroni, M., Selva, J. and Zhuang, J. (2021). Estimation of the tapered Gutenberg-Richter distribution parameters for catalogs with variable completeness: An application to the Atlantic ridge seismicity. Applied Sciences, 11 (24), https://doi.org/10.3390/app112412166, December 2021. (Open Access)

Yang, J., Chen, S., Zhang, B., Zhuang, J., Wang, L. and Lu, H. (2021). Gravity Observations and Apparent Density Changes before the 2017 Jiuzhaigou Ms7.0 Earthquake and Their Precursory Significance, Entropy, 23 (12), https://doi.org/10.3390/e23121687, December 2021. (Open Access).

Kano, M., Ikeuchi, A., Nishimura, T., Miyazaki, S. and Matsushima T. (2021). Potential of megathrust earthquakes along the southern Ryukyu Trench inferred from GNSS data. Earth Planets Space, 73, 199, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-021-01531-z, December 2021 (Published: 26 October 2021).

Takahashi, H., Tateiwa, K., Yano, K. and Kano, M. (2021). A convolutional neural network-based classification of local earthquakes and tectonic tremors in Sanriku-oki, Japan, using S-net data. Earth Planets Space, 73, 186, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-021-01524-y, December 2021 (Published: 15 October 2021).

Nanjo, K.Z. and Yoshida A. (2021). Changes in the b value in and around the focal areas of the M6.9 and M6.8 earthquakes off the coast of Miyagi prefecture, Japan, Earth Planets Space, 73, 176, https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-021-01511-3, December 2021 (Published: 14 September 2021).

Zheng, Y., Enescu, B., Zhuang, J. and Yu, C. (2021). Data replenishment of five moderate earthquake sequences in Japan, with semi-automatic cluster selection, Earthquake Science, 34(4), pp.310-322, doi: 10.29382/eqs-2021-0030, October 2021 (Available Online 25 August 2021).

Pei, W., Zhou, S. and Zhuang, J. (2021). Application and discussion of statistical seismology in probability seismic hazard assessment studies, Science China Earth Sciences, Vol.65, pp.257-268, doi:10.1007/s11430-021-9824-0, October 2021.

Wang, L., Chen, S., Zhuang, J. and Xu, W. (2021). Simultaneous calibration of instrument scale factor and drift rate in network adjustment for continental-scale gravity survey campaign. Geophysical Journal International, 228 (3), pp.1541-1555, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggab419, October 2021.

熊澤貴雄, 尾形良彦 (2021). 長野・岐阜・福井県境付近の群発地震活動について, 地震予知連絡会会報, 第106巻(7-2), pp. 332-336, 2021年9月.

Yamada, M. (2021). Development of the Empirical Function to Estimate Shaking Amplitude and Duration in Buildings Based on Strong Motion Records. 6th IASPEI/IAEE International Symposium: Effects of Surface Geology on Seismic Motion, Online, August 30 - September 1, 2021.

Yamada, M. and Mori, J. (2021). P-wave picking for earthquake early warning: refinement of a Tpd method, Geophysical Journal International, 228 (1), January 2022, Pages 387–395, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggab349, (Published: 28 August 2021).

Xiong, Z., Zhuang, J., Zhou, S., Matsu'ura, M., Hao, M. and Wang, Q. (2021). Crustal strain-rate fields estimated from GNSS data with a Bayesian approach and its correlation to seismic activity in Mainland China, Tectonophysics, 815, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2021.229003, September 2021. (Available online 26 July 2021)

Jia, K., Zhou, S., Zhuang, J. and Jiang, C. (2021). Stress transfer along the western boundary of the Bayan Har Block on the Tibet Plateau from the 2008 to 2020 Yutian earthquake sequence in China, Geophysical Research Letters, 48 (15), doi:10.1029/2021GL094125. (First published: 15 July 2021)