Seismology TowArd Research innovation with data of Earthquake Project (STAR-E Project)「New developments in space-time earthquake forecasting and monitoring: from long-term to real-time」

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ISM Reports of CCEP

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the 243rd meeting of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, (CCEP, Hybrid Meeting), May 22, 2024 (Press release and YouTube movie available)
  • Deliberation about crustal activity monitoring
    • 1.3 Others: (6) Analysis of Aftershock Activity of the 2024 Noto Peninsula M7.6 Earthquake, p34-36 (ISM) → PDF (in Japanese)
    • 1.4 Prediction of crustal activity: (1) Experiments in Prediction of Crustal Activity(2)-Short-term Probability Prediction and Evaluation of Inland Earthquakes (2019 – 2024.01.08), p39-40 (ISM) → PDF (in Japanese)
NEW
the 242nd meeting of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, (CCEP, Hybrid Meeting), February 29, 2024 (Press release and YouTube movie available)
  • Intensive discussion - Examination of the "The 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake".
    • - Inverse analysis of the seismic activity before and after the 2024 M7.6 Noto Peninsula earthquake, p48-49 Takao Kumazawa ,Yoshihiko Ogata (The Institute of Statical Mathmatics)→ PDF (in Japanese)
the 241th meeting of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, (CCEP, Hybrid Meeting), November 30, 2023 (Press release and YouTube movie available)
  • Deliberation about crustal activity monitoring:
    • (3) Seismic activity near the Tokara Islands (near Kodakarajima Island) (Largest Earthquake:September 11, M5.3), p22 (ISM) → PDF (in Japanese)
    • (7) Seismic activity in the sea near Torishima (Largest Earthquake: October 5, M6.5), p22 (ISM) → PDF (in Japanese)
  • Intensive discussion - Examination of the "Trials of experimental forecasts of crustal deformation and seismicity #9: Validation of intermediate-term seismicity forecasts" (All Invited lectures):
    • - On the relative quiescence of seismicity off the Eastern part of Hokkaido: a decade after its detection, p39 Ritsuko Matsu'ura (Association For The Development Of Earthquake Prediction, ISM-Star-E) → PDF (in Japanese)
    • - Spatial and temporal changes in the Gutenberg-Richter size-frequency distribution (b value) of earthquakes off the coast of Hokkaido and Tohoku districts, p41 Kazuyoshi Nanjo (University of Shizuoka, ISM-Star-E) → PDF (in Japanese)
    • - Interpretation of the course of the Noto Peninsula earthquake swarm and some anomalous activities before and after major earthquakes, p43-44 Takao Kumazawa, Yoshihiko Ogata (The Institute of Statical Mathmatics) → PDF (in Japanese)
The 240th meeting of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, (CCEP, Hybrid Meeting), August 31, 2023, Discussion on Monitoring of Crustal Activities Report of the Liaison Conference on Prediction of Earthquakes (Press release and YouTube movie available)
  • Estimation of actual activity rate-changes from seismic catalogs with systematic missing measurements: Aftershock activity of the M6.5 Noto Peninsula earthquake:
    • For the purpose of online early prediction, we dared to consider all of the detected aftershock data and tried to analyze the aftershock activity immediately after the May 5 M6.5 earthquake. As a result, an interpretation was proposed that fluid pressure may have increased after the main shock and then converged to explain the change in background seismic activity level. (Ref. pp. 23-24, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics; Yosihiko Ogata, Takao Kumazawa) → PDF (in Japanese)
The 239th Meeting of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, (CCEP, Hybrid Meeting), May 31, 2023
  • Organization of the 28th CCEP: Professor emeritus Ogata reappointed to committee.
  • Prediction of crustal activity: (2) prediction of crustal activity - Space-time features of the Noto Peninsula swarm activity and the May 5, 2023 earthquake (Ogata Y. and Kumazawa T.) → PDF (in Japanese)
  • Intensive discussion "Earthquake swarm". -Earthquake swarm near the border between Nagano and Gifu prefectures in 2020 (Kato A. Earthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo) → PDF (in Japanese)
The 238th Meeting of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, (CCEP, Hybrid Meeting), Feb.28, 2023
  • Earthquakes in Turkey on February 6, 2023 (UTC) (Ogata Y. and Kumazawa T.) → PDF (in Japanese)
  • Prediction of crustal activity(1) - short-term probabilistic prediction and evaluation of crustal earthquakes (Ogata Y.) → PDF (in Japanese)
  • Development of seismic and geodetic event detection methods using multiple observation stations by artificial intelligence (Yano K.) → PDF (in Japanese)
The 237th Meeting of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, (CCEP, Hybrid Meeting), Nov. 25, 2022
  • Regional features revealed from the non-stationary ETAS model for earthquake swarm activity in Noto Peninsula - Continuation Report 2, Session for Study on Monitoring of Crustal Activity, Takao Kumazawa, Yoshihiko Ogata →PDF1; Press Conference Materials
  • Prediction and validation of long‑term earthquake probabilities in inland Japan using the hierarchical space–time ETAS and space–time Poisson process models, Invited talk in the Session for Discussion on Priority Issue "Long-Term Prediction of Inland Earthquakes", Yoshihiko Ogata → PDF2; Press Conference Materials
The 235th Meeting of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, (CCEP, Hybrid Meeting), May 16, 2022
  • Regional features revealed from the non-stationary ETAS model for earthquake swarm activity in Noto Peninsula (follow-up report) by Takao Kumazawa, and Yoshihiko Ogata → PDF (in Japanese with English figure captions)
  • Establishment of "Prediction Experiment WG" of the CCEP → PDF (in Japanese)
★ Click here for previous reports (in Japanese)