Seismology TowArd Research innovation with data of Earthquake Project (STAR-E Project)「New developments in space-time earthquake forecasting and monitoring: from long-term to real-time」

Japanese

About this site Message from the Principal Investigator

"New developments in space-time earthquake forecasting and monitoring: from long-term to real-time"
The difficulty of deterministic "earthquake prediction" is an inherent challenge in the field of complex systems science. We have up to now accumulated a wide range of relevant data on a large scale, with which there is a growing need to pursue probabilistic forecasts. This project aims to conduct such probabilistic forecasts based on quantitative models of seismicity and crustal activity, so that we can further promote researches on the utility of seismological knowledge. Particularly, by composing multiple sources of earthquake probability forecasts in various timescales, including long-term, medium-term, and short-term, we can implement real-time forecasts with higher probability gains. This enables us to forecast seismicity based on anticipated seismological scenarios and deploy emergency observation networks swiftly. From the perspectives of multi-timescale, including long-term, medium-term, short-term, and immediate, this project will not only leverage methods from information science and statistical science, but also make use of the advantages of other research areas, to contribute to the advancement of seismology research and disaster prevention.
- Jiancang Zhuang, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics

TopicsArchive

2024年06月17日NEW
The paper by Tomoaki Nishikawa <T. Nishikawa, A. Ide, and T. Nishimura: A Review on Slow Earthquakes in the Japan Trench> was awarded the PEPS Most Downloaded for 2021-2023.
2024年06月10日NEW
At the 95th Statistical Seismology Seminar, Dr. Gerstenberger, Matt (Seismologist/NSHM Lead, GNS Science, New Zealand)  will give a talk (@ISM 4F Lounge and Online 16:00-17:00). For more information, click here.
2024年05月20日
Yosihiko Ogata, Project Researcher (Professor Emeritus), has been highly ranked by ScholarGPS (Meta Analytics) as the world's top expert in the following specialties (Seismicity #5; Statistical model #9; Earthquakes #40).
2024年04月16日
At the 94th Statistical Seismology Seminar, Dr. Koh, Jonathan (Post-doctoral researcher, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research(OCCR), University of Bern, Switzerland) gave a talk (@ISM 4F Lounge and Online 16:00-17:00). For more information, click here.
2024年03月19日
Tomoaki Nishikawa (Assistant Professor @ Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University) received the Young Scientist Award and the Best Paper Award from the Seismological Society of Japan. For more details (in Japanese), click here.
2024年03月17日
The 13th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (Statsei13)  was held on March 16-20, 2024 at Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech) Convention Center, Shenzhen, China. See ISM-STAR-E members' presentations here.
2024年01月30日
At the 93rd Statistical Seismology Seminar, Dr. Ueda, Taku (JSPS Research Fellowship for Young Scientists of Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University /Visiting Researcher of ISM) gave a talk (Online 16:00-17:00). For more information, click here.
2023年11月30日
Kazuyoshi Nanjo (Project Professor, Shizuoka Prefectural University), Takao Kumazawa (Project Associate Professor, ISM) and Yoshihiko Ogata (Project Researcher and Professor Emeritus, ISM) gave an invited lecture on Seismic Activity off Hokkaido and Tohoku Coast and Noto Peninsula Earthquake Swarm at the 241st meeting of the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction. Click here for details → [Press Release] Latest Findings on Active Seismic Activity off Hokkaido and Tohoku Coast and Noto Peninsula (in Japanese)
2023年11月07日
The 92th Statistical Seismology seminar, workshops on the Research Progress of Star-E and Italian-Japanese Joint Projects was held on Nov. 7, 10:00-12:00, 14:00-16:30; in the 4F lounge in ISM, also zoom, hybrid.
For more information, click here.
2023年10月03日
At the 91st Statistical Seismology Seminar, Prof. Guan, Yongtao (Department of Management Science, School of Business Administration, University of Miami) gave a talk (Online 16:00-17:00). For more information, click here.
2023年09月20日
Masumi Yamada (Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University) gave a lecture at the Seismology Summer School 2023 organised by the Seismological Society of Japan. Click here for more information (SSJ site in Japanese).
2023年09月08日
Matsu'ura, S Ritsuko (Senior Fellow, Association for the Development of Earthquake Prediction) appeared on "NHK History Detective - What to do about Ieyasu vs. Hideyoshi" program, showing the seismic intensity distribution of the Tensho Earthquake and explaining why Hideyoshi had no choice but to compromise with Tokugawa.
2023年08月29日
At the 90th Statistical Seismology Seminar, Dr. Hsieh, Ming-Che (謝 銘哲)(Associate Research Fellow @Earthquake Disaster & Risk Evaluation and Management Center (E-DREaM), National Central University, Taiwan)gave a talk (Online 16:00- ). For more information, click here.
2023年08月07日
At the American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2023 meeting, the seismology session S029 proposed by Zhuang Jiancang (Professor, ISM) was accepted and 49 presentations were submitted.
2023年07月10日
2023年07月06日
The results of ISM-STAR-E in FY2022 were introduced at the main agenda item "Advancement of Long-Term Prediction Methods for Inland Earthquakes" of the 88th Session of the Research and Observation Planning Subcommittee of the Policy Committee held on June 28, 2023, at the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion of the Japanese government. These results will be used as a reference for the release of forecast information in the future.
2023年06月30日
Keisuke Yano (Associate Professor, ISM) gave a lecture at the Center for Mathematical and Data Science Education and Research (MMDS) at Osaka University. For more info, click here.
2023年06月16日
At the 89th Statistical Seismology Seminar, Prof. Zhigang Peng (School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, USA)gave a talk (Online 16:00- ). For more information, click here.
2023年06月06日
Zhuang Jiancang (Professor, ISM) has organised an invited session "Statistical Seismology" at IWAP2023 (International Workshop on Applied Probability 2023) in Thessaloniki, Greece.
2023年05月15日
Zhuang Jiancang (Professor, ISM) visited the University of Otago, New Zealand (from 22 Apr to 11 May) for a joint research meeting on 'slow-slip'.
2023年04月07日
Stephen Wu (Associate Professor, ISM) received the Young Scientists' Prize of the Commendation for Science and Technology by the Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. For the ISM press release, click here (PDF in Japanese).
2023年04月03日
Yosihiko Ogata (Project Researcher, Professor Emeritus, ISM) is ranked #14 in Japan among Best Scientists for 2023.
2023年03月20日
Dr. Koji Tamaribuchi (Meteorological Research Institute) received the Seismological Society of Japan Young Scientist Incentive Award by his research result on "Improvement of Immediate Prediction of Seismic Motions and Elucidation of Unusual Seismic Activity Based on Advanced Earthquake Identification Methods".
2023年03月17日
At the 88th Statistical Seismology Seminar, Dr. Sebastian Hainzl (GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Germany) and Sam Stockman (Computational Statistics and Data Science, University of Bristol, UK) gave talks (15:00 -17:00). For more information, click here.
2023年03月14日
Keisuke Yano (Associate Professor, ISM) had an invited talk at Slow-to-Fast Earthquake Workshop in Taiwan (March13-14, 2023).
2023年03月13日
Yosihiko Ogata (Project Researcher, Professor Emeritus, ISM) presented "Experiments in Prediction of Crustal Activity (1) - Short-term Probability of Inland Earthquakes Prediction and Evaluation of Short-Term Probability of Inland Earthquakes" on the short-term prediction of spatiotemporal seismic activity over the last three years using various spatiotemporal ETAS models based on online source data, and the evaluation of the results of these runs at the 238th Liaison Conference on Earthquake Prediction (held on February 28, 2023). In addition, he reported on the aftershock activity of the February 6, 2023 earthquake in Turkey under the Urgent Topic Issue.
2023年03月13日
Keisuke Yano (Associate Professor, ISM) gave an invited lecture for the Priority Topic of the conference "Deepening Earthquake Research with Artificial Intelligence" entitled "Development of a Method for Detecting Seismic and Geodetic Events Using Multiple Observation Stations with Artificial Intelligence" at the 238th Liaison Conference on Earthquake Prediction (held on February 28, 2023).
2023年03月02日
Masumi Yamada (Associate Professor, DPRI Kyoto University) received the 2022 INNO-vation Program Generation Award and the Kyoto University Tachibana Award. (Re-edited from 2/14 Topics)
2022年12月26日
At the 87th Statistical Seismology Seminar, Daisuke Sato, JSPS Research Fellow (Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University) gave a talk. (Online 16:00 -17:00)
2022年11月25日
Our group's research outputs of "Analysis of the Noto Peninsula earthquake swarm using the nonstationary ETAS mode" and "Long-term prediction and validation of inland earthquakes using the hierarchical space-time (HIST-ETAS) ETAS model, etc." were presented as a monitoring report and a summary of key issues lecture, respectively, at the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction meeting (YouTube video available).
2022年11月14日
Zhuang Jiancang (Associate Professor, ISM) and Sofiane Rahmani (Center of Research in Astronomy, Astrophysics and Geophysics (CRAAG), Algeria) gave talks at the 86th Statistical Seismology Seminar. (Online 16:15 -17:30)
2022年10月24日
The 12th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology (StatSei12) was held in Corsica (Institut des Etudes Scientifiques de Cargèse, Corsica, France, 17-21 October 2022). The project leader, Associate Professor Zhuang, Jiancang (Programme Committee member), Xiong, Ziyao (Project Assistant Professor) and Giuseppe, Petrillo (Project Researcher) attended and presented their work.
2022年10月06日
2022年10月03日
Peng Hong (Project Researcher, ISM) has joined our team.
2022年10月03日
Tomoaki Nishikawa (Assistant Professor, DPRI Kyoto University; Visiting Researcher, ISM) gave a talk at the 85th Statistical Seismology Seminar (Online 16:15 -18:15).
2022年07月23日
Yosihiko Ogata (Project Researcher, Professor Emeritus, ISM) gave a lecture at the Seismological Society of Japan's Special Symposium: A Major Earthquake! What next after "Be careful for about a week"? -Late Earthquakes and Temporary Information-(in Japanese), Online. Click for: the summary & PowerPoint [pdf].
2022年07月05日
Giuseppe Petrillo (Project Researcher, ISM) has invited for a lecture at「Coarse-grained description for non-equilibrium systems and transport phenomena」in Rome, Italy. For the summary of the lecture, click here.
2022年05月27日
Masumi Yamada (Assistant Professor, DPRI, Kyoto University) gave a talk on "Mystery of Tsunami Caused by January 2022 Tongan Volcano Eruption" at the 51st Seismological Society of Japan Press Conference.
2022年05月26日
Keisuke Yano (Associate Professor, ISM), the sub-thesis leader of our project, has been selected to receive the Ogawa Research Encouragement Award from the Japan Statistical Society.
2022年05月25日
2022年05月02日
Giuseppe Petrillo (Project Researcher, ISM) has joined our team.
2022年04月13日
The video of the 1st Research Forum of the Seismic Survey Research Project Using Information Science (STAR-E Project) "Earthquake x AI, Innovation Aimed at by the STAR-E Project: High-profile AI Companies Talk about the Potential of Earthquake Research" has been posted on the MEXT's YouTube channel.
2022年03月18日
2022年03月17日
The analysis results of the 2022.3.16 Fukushima Prefecture Offshore Earthquake Early Warning, occurred in a short period of time can be viewed on the website of Masumi Yamada (Assistant Professor, Division of Earthquake Disaster Prevention Research, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University).
2022年03月09日
Long-term prediction map of a major earthquake directly under the earth by Yoshihiko Ogata (Project Researcher, Professor Emeritus, ISM) was featured in The Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei electronic edition) (The text is available only to subscribers, so please refer to the Bulletin of the Japan Federation of Earthquake Prediction Association.)
2022年02月01日
Statistical Mathematics Vol. 69, No. 2, Special Topic: Hawkes Process: Recent Development and Applications edited by Jiancang Zhuang (the project leader, Associate Professor, ISM) and others (including a conference article by Prof. Hawkes) has been published.
2022年01月12日

UpdatesArchive

2024年07月09日NEW
2024年07月04日NEW
Publications has been updated.
2024年06月28日NEW
Publications has been updated.
2024年06月12日NEW
On About the project page, FY2023 (R5) Annual Report on Results [pdf in Japanese] has been uploaded.
2024年06月01日
Conference Presentations has been updated.
2024年05月27日
Publications has been updated.
2024年05月02日
Works (Publications) and Information page has been updated.
2024年04月12日
Conference Presentations has been updated.
2024年03月12日
Publications and Conference Presentations pages have been updated.
2024年03月01日
Publications has been updated.
2024年01月31日
Publications has been updated.
2024年01月12日
Publications has been updated.
2023年12月27日
2023年12月19日
Publications has been updated.
2023年11月15日
ISM-STAR-E members' presentations for AGU Fall Meeting 2023 (Moscone Center, CA) has been posted on the Conference Presentations page.
2023年10月13日
Publications has been updated.
2023年10月11日
Publications has been updated.
2023年10月06日
ISM-STAR-E members' presentations for the Seismological Society of Japan Autumn Meeting 2023 (Pacifico Yokohama Annex Hall) have been posted on the Conference Presentations page.
2023年09月29日
Works (Outrearch of Outcomes) has been updated.
2023年09月15日
Conference Presentations has been updated.
2023年09月08日
Members page has been updated.
2023年09月03日
ISM-STAR-E members' schedule of participation and presentation at Japanese Joint Statistical Meeting 2023 (Kyoto University) is posted on the Conference Presentations page.
2023年07月07日
Topics and Publications have been updated.
2023年07月03日
2023年06月06日
Conference Presentations has been updated.
2023年06月01日
Publications page has been updated.
2023年05月22日
Conference Presentations have been updated.
2023年05月11日
Members page has been updated.
2023年05月01日
Members page has been updated.
2023年04月28日
About this site has been updated. FY2022 (R4) Annual Report on Results (ISM proposal) [pdf in Japanese] is now available.
2023年04月14日
Publications page has been updated.
2023年04月07日
Members and Works (Publications and Conference Presentations) have been updated.
2023年04月03日
Topics has been updated.
2023年03月20日
Topics and Links (Information) have been updated.
2023年03月16日
Topics, Publications and Presentations have been updated.
2023年03月07日
Statistical Seismology Seminars has been updated (Latest: 2023/3/17(Fri) 15:00-17:00).
2023年03月02日
Topics and Works (Publications and Outrearch of Outcomes) has been updated.
2023年02月17日
Publications has been updated.
2023年02月06日
Conference Presentations has been updated.
2023年01月31日
Works of Assistant Professor Tomoaki Nishikawa (Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto Univ.) has been added to Publication and conference presentation pages.
2023年01月24日
Publications has been updated.
2023年01月12日
Publications has been updated.
2022年12月19日
Statistical Seismology Seminars has been updated (Latest: 2022/12/26(Mon) 16:00-17:00).
2022年12月16日
Professor Emeritus Ogata and Project Associate Professor Kumazawa gave an inviting lecture and a report on the results of our project, respectively, including "Long-Term Prediction of Large Inland Earthquakes," at the 237th Meeting of the Coordinating Committee of Earthquake Prediction (Priority Issue and Earth Crust Monitoring). The details are available in the "Topics" and "Information" sections of this page, in the "Contribution of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics to the CCEP Meeting" section.
2022年12月01日
On the Publications page, papers by Associate Professor Zhuang Jiancang and Project Researcher Petrillo Giuseppe, among others, are now available.
2022年11月28日
Conference Presentations has been updated (Seminar in December by Zhuang Jiancang).
2022年10月14日
Conference Presentations has been updated (Presentation of the symposium to be held in November by Associate Professor Keisuke Yano).
2022年09月30日
Conference Presentations has been updated (Information on participation of members in 3 conferences held in October is available).
2022年09月26日
2022年09月26日
Updated information for The 85th Statistical Seismology Seminars (Latest: 2022/10/03(Mon) 16:15-18:15).
2022年09月15日
2022年09月13日
Conference Presentations has been updated.
2022年09月05日
Conference Presentations has been updated.
2022年08月18日
Publications has been updated.
2022年07月26日
Conference Presentations has been updated.
2022年07月19日
Publications has been updated.
2022年07月15日
Software Database page has been updated.
2022年07月06日
About Research page (Summary of Research Results Fiscal Year 2021 (R3)[pdf in Japanese]) has been updated.
2022年07月04日
Members page has been updated.
2022年07月01日
Works (Conference Presentations) has been updated.
2022年06月29日
Works (Publications) page has been updated.
2022年06月24日
Software Database page has been updated.
2022年06月17日
Works (publications and research outcomes pages) page has been updated.
2022年06月06日
Works (Conference Presentations) has been updated.
2022年06月03日
Information has been updated.
2022年06月02日
Update Information columns have been added to TOP page.
2022年04月01日
We opened new website for our STAR-E Project (Seismology TowArd Research innovation with data of Earthquake Project), “New developments in space-time earthquake forecasting and monitoring: from long-term to real-time.”