Seismology TowArd Research innovation with data of Earthquake Project (STAR-E Project)「New developments in space-time earthquake forecasting and monitoring: from long-term to real-time」

The difficulty of deterministic "earthquake prediction" is an inherent challenge in the field of complex systems science. We have up to now accumulated a wide range of relevant data on a large scale, with which there is a growing need to pursue probabilistic forecasts. This project aims to conduct such probabilistic forecasts based on quantitative models of seismicity and crustal activity, so that we can further promote researches on the utility of seismological knowledge. Particularly, by composing multiple sources of earthquake probability forecasts in various timescales, including long-term, medium-term, and short-term, we can implement real-time forecasts with higher probability gains. This enables us to forecast seismicity based on anticipated seismological scenarios and deploy emergency observation networks swiftly. From the perspectives of multi-timescale, including long-term, medium-term, short-term, and immediate, this project will not only leverage methods from information science and statistical science, but also make use of the advantages of other research areas, to contribute to the advancement of seismology research and disaster prevention.